Part II – Economic White Papers

A Simple and Effective Economic Forecasting Model

Please click the link below for my article entitled, A Simple and Effective Economic Forecasting Model.

This economic forecasting model will make it easy for you to track current economic events and enable you to make an informed judgement on the state of and future direction of the economy.

A Simple & Effective Economic Forecasting Model White Paper

The worksheet attached here is a worksheet to accompany the Simple and Effective Economic Forecasting Model White Paper. Click on the following link to access the worksheet:

Simple and Effective Economic Forecasting Worksheet

The current analysis of the economy using the Simple and Effective Forecasting model can be found by clicking the link the following link.

Simple and Effective Economic Model Forecast

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index is one of the economic forecasting tools that we use in our analysis. It is a part of our Real Time and Current Economic Conditions section of the Intrinsic Value Wealth Report (Book #6). This is the link to the ADS Business Conditions Index in Book #6.

The ADS business conditions index is based on the framework developed in Aruoba, S.B., Diebold, F.X. and Scotti, C. (2009), “Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 27:4 (October 2009), pp. 417-27. The above link accesses this research paper.

Refinements were made to the ADS index and are discussed in “Updates on ADS Index Calculation.”

Gross Output Measure and Skousen B2B Index

For a discussion of the new Gross Output measure, which is a broader measure of U.S. economic activity than GDP alone; and the Skousen B2B Index, a measure of spending in the entire supply chain, please see the links below:

“Structure of Production” (NYU Press, 1990, 2015) by Mark Skousen

Gross Output and Skousen B2B Index

For more on Gross Output, visit Dr. Mark Skousen’s website at:

Gross Output Forecast:

To review the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data on Gross Output, click on the following link:

Gross Output By Industry